Industry Outlook

Which industries will have the most new jobs over the next five years?

Employment is projected to rise in 16 of the 19 industries over the five years to May 2022.

The strong growth in Health Care and Social Assistance in recent years is projected to continue, with this industry projected to add significantly more jobs than any other industry (up by 250,500). Large contributions to employment growth are also projected for Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (126,400), Construction (120,700), Education and Training (116,200) and Accommodation and Food Services (97,600).

The industries which are projected to grow most strongly (in percentage terms) are Health Care and Social Assistance (up by 16.1%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (12.5%) and Education and Training (12.0%).

Projected employment growth, industry share (% of new jobs)*

Pie chart shows the industry share of the projected jobs growth over the five years to May 2022. Health Care and Social Assistance 25%. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 13%. Construction 12%. Education and Training 12%. Accommodation and Food Services 10%. Public Administration and Safety 8%. Retail Trade 5%. Transport, Postal and Warehousing 4%. Administrative and Support Services 3%. Other 8%.

*These shares are calculated on the total new jobs projected to be created over the five years to May 2022. They exclude the projected falls for Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing.

The chart below provides more disaggregated information about where the new jobs will be. While it shows the diversity of new opportunities, it also highlights the importance of service jobs to future employment growth.

Largest projected employment gains by subsector ('000)

Chart shows the largest projected employment gains by industry subsector.Medical and Other Health Care Services up by 116,600.Food and Beverage Services 91,000.Construction Services 77,700.Professional,Scientific and Technical Services (Except Computer System Design and Related Services) 72,200.Social Assistance Services 66,800.Public Admin 64,600.Preschool and School Education 58,700.Computer System Design and Related Services 54,200.Adult,Community and Other Education 40,100.Building Construction 39,100.

Which industries will decline over the next five years?

The three industries in which employment is projected to fall are Manufacturing (down by 38,300 or 4.2%), Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (9,000 or 7.0%) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (2,400 or 0.8%).

Although overall lower employment is projected in these industries, some subsectors are projected to add new jobs.

Despite some projected job losses, Manufacturing will continue to provide employment for a significant number of Australians and five subsectors within this industry are projected to grow over the five years to May 2022, with the largest gains projected in

  • Food Product Manufacturing (up by 5,300 or 2.7%)
  • Furniture and Other Manufacturing (4,400 or 6.0%)
  • Basic Chemical and Chemical Product Manufacturing (2,600 or 4.9%).

Within Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, the Waste Collection, Treatment and Disposal Services subsector is projected to partly offset the falls in the other subsectors (up by 2,700 or 8.2%).

The projected decline in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing employment is concentrated in the Agriculture subsector (which accounts for the vast majority of employment in the industry), with all other subsectors projected to have modest growth or remain relatively stable.

The 10 industry subsectors which are expected to record the largest falls in employment are mainly clustered in the three industries which are projected to decline.

Largest projected employment falls by subsector ('000)

Chart shows the largest projected employment falls by industry subsector.Transport Equipment Manufacturing down by 27,500.Textile,Leather,Clothing and Footwear Manufacturing 6,800. Electricity Supply 5,600.Agriculture Water Supply,Sewerage and Drainage Services 3,900.Machinery and Equipment Wholesaling 3,800.Primary Metal and Metal Product Manufacturing 3,600.Coal Mining 3,500.Polymer Product and Rubber Product Manufacturing 3,300.Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing 2,800.

Will the future growth provide opportunities for young people?

Retail Trade, Accommodation and Food Services and Construction all employ large numbers of young people. These industries are projected to collectively add 264,000 new jobs over the five years to May 2022 and every subsector within these industries is projected to record an increase in employment.

Apart from Manufacturing, relatively few young workers are employed in the industries which are projected to have a reduction in employment.

What about opportunities for females?

Women comprise a relatively large share of employment in four of the five industries which are expected to add the largest numbers of new jobs. They also comprise small proportions of employment in the three industries projected to lose jobs over the five years to May 2022.

Sources: Department of Jobs and Small Business, Industry Employment Projections; ABS, Labour Force (annual averages of original data); ABS, Census of Population and Housing

For more information see lmip.gov.au